期权SPD分析工具
基于期权链数据与蝴蝶价差原理，推导市场隐含概率密度 (State Price Density)
原始数据输入
行权价 (Strikes)
250, 252.5, 255, 257.5, 260, 262.5, 265, 267.5, 270, 272.5, 275, 277.5, 280, 282.5, 285, 287.5, 290, 292.5, 295, 297.5, 300, 302.5, 305, 307.5, 310, 312.5, 315, 317.5, 320, 322.5, 325, 327.5, 330, 332.5, 335, 337.5, 340, 342.5, 345, 347.5, 350, 352.5, 355, 357.5, 360, 362.5, 365, 367.5, 370, 372.5, 375, 380, 385, 390, 395, 400, 405
Call 价格
73.69, 65.53, 66.3, 70.32, 62.8, 55, 57.35, 56.34, 53.27, 50.85, 49.07, 43.7, 44.23, 44.0, 41.02, 39.58, 34.85, 32.51, 31.07, 29.0, 26.41, 24.42, 22.58, 20.91, 19.16, 17.65, 15.95, 14.55, 13.2, 11.96, 10.66, 9.58, 8.6, 7.74, 6.85, 6.15, 5.41, 4.83, 4.27, 3.8, 3.35, 2.92, 2.62, 2.33, 2.05, 1.79, 1.6, 1.43, 1.27, 1.14, 1.01, 0.8, 0.65, 0.53, 0.42, 0.35, 0.29
Put 价格
0.42, 0.48, 0.5, 0.53, 0.59, 0.64, 0.68, 0.78, 0.85, 0.85, 1.08, 1.24, 1.39, 1.6, 1.81, 2.05, 2.38, 2.59, 3.1, 3.55, 4.1, 4.6, 5.25, 6.05, 6.85, 7.6, 8.6, 9.66, 10.8, 12.1, 13.45, 14.75, 16.28, 17.7, 19.45, 20.9, 23.1, 24.45, 26.41, 28.35, 30.93, 31.85, 34.05, 36.25, 38.0, 41.1, 42.5, 45.65, 46.5, 50.95, 53.67, 58.0, 62.9, 69.4, 66.5, 78.17, 80.0
平滑参数
KDE 带宽 (Bandwidth)
生成图像
概率密度分布 (SPD)
最高概率对应股价
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如何解读这张概率密度分布图？